The Investor Notebook

23 Oct 2024

Yield Curve normalisation

-Worth noting a stirring across otherwise sedate fixed interest desks, following last week’s yield curve normalisation. Not the whole curve, rather the closely watched 10 year-2 year section of the US Treasury yield curve.

-The return-to-positive or ‘disinversion’ is significant given it had been ~ 550 days since this spread was last positive and the longest running inversion in over 50 years

– In an excellent Goldman Sachs Portfolio Strategy Research piece released earlier this year, the team debunked the significance this might play (ie whether the curve is bull or bear steepening) in divining the outlook for equities. Moreover, GS declaimed ‘Growth (economic), rather than changes in yields or the shape of the curve, is the most important driver for equity returns’

– Another case where the principles of Occam’s Razor hold true for stock investing.

Ben Griffiths​

Executive Chairman

Related articles

The Encyclical June Quarter 2026

The Encyclical June Quarter 2026
23 Jul 2026

Read more

Awakening the dragon

This week I attended a timely symposium, ‘Awakening The Dragon’, hosted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in collaboration with CITIC CLSA and the Bank of China Syd Branch. There were several notable takeaways:
6 Nov 2024

Read more

Ben Griffiths – Small cap legend builds a 30 year portfolio

Ben unpack’s his journey in finance and the lessons learned along the way.
6 Feb 2025

Read more

Invest Now

About us

Funds

Investor Portals

The Investor Notebook

Contact